A preview of the municipal election on 18 May

Every voter has two votes next Wednesday – one for a ward councillor, where one chooses between individuals, and one on a proportional list where one casts a vote for a political party.

For the ANC the issue will be not to lose too much.

The ANC steadily increased its percentage of the vote from 1994 to 2004, peaking in the national elections in that year at close to 70% of the vote. Since then they have lost some ground (66.35% in 2006, 65.9% in 2009), but not nearly as much as predicted by pundits.

This time round, pundits are again predicting a loss of support for the ANC.

Failure to keep the ANC share of the vote above 60% could lead to considerable political pressure on President Zuma. It is clear that there are candidates in the ANC who would like to make a run for the Presidency if given the opportunity. They may use a poor election result as a stick to try and hit Mr Zuma and force a contest. Should the ANC come well out of the elections it will strengthen Mr Zuma’s hand.

For the DA the issue will be to break through the 20% mark.

This time round the DA should benefit from its merger with the Independent Democrats (although that was only a 2% party at the previous election). The DA should also gain if COPE implodes as is generally expected.

An important issue for all parties will be the percentage poll. In 2000 it was 48%, in 2006 48.4%. So half the voters did not bother to go and vote in the last two local elections.
A higher percentage poll will benefit the party whose supporters come out and vote. Pundits are predicting that ANC supporters will stay away on Wednesday. They will clearly have to stay away in much bigger numbers than before to cause meaningful change.

Another critical issue particularly for the DA, will be how many municipalities it will control outright. Data released by the national government clearly indicates that the DA performs well in the municipalities it controls outright. The more such DA-controlled municipalities there are, the more competition will be introduced in the performance race between municipalities, which must be good.

The possible downside in the election results could be a division along racial lines. If White, Coloured and Indian voters largely vote DA and Black (as in African) voters choose the ANC, it will perpetuate a trend witnessed in 1999 and will undermine social cohesion. It will also mean the DA will remain a largely Western Cape party.

From: Preview of the local government elections by J P Landman